Marriage Amendment Poll

WisPolitics released this poll saying Wisconsin residents were evenly split on the state marriage amendment - 48.5% saying they would vote for, 47.8% saying they would vote against.

We have two observations on this poll.

1. They called 600 adults. This is a misleading poll. When it is a ballot question, you should screen for likely voters. They do point out in the press release that the more likely voting age group was more strongly in favor of the amendment - meaning among likely voters, the results are probably closer to 52% to 44%.

2. Everywhere this amendment has been on the ballot it has garnered 57-70% of the vote. According to this story, Michigan and Oregon, the two "purple" states most like Wisconsin electorally garnered 59% and 57% of the vote for the marriage amendment.

What does this mean for the 7th district?

We don't have the geographic breakdowns, but we'd be willing to bet that the numbers among likely voters in the 7th are closer to 60% or more in favor of the amendment (with the reverse being true in Madison and Milwaukee) and will remain that way until November 7th.

And we know that Dave Obey called those of us who favor this amendment "ridiculous" but we'll wait to see if he runs away from this statement later.